#157 THE G|O BRIEFING, NOVEMBER 2, 2023

In Gaza, War Crimes, and Starvation; At the UN, Paralysis | Ticking Time Bombs | "Too late for a two-state solution" |


Friends,

Today in The Geneva Observer, Stephanie Nebehay reports on last Monday’s launch event of Geneva Peace Week, and the keynote address by the former UN Human Rights chief Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein. ‘Building Trust, Building Peace, an Agenda for the Future,’ the title of the event, seemed surreal, almost bafflingly so, in the context of the current Middle East conflict; and yet the aspirations it contains are more needed than ever, even if they have never seemed more elusive. 

The crisis is not only deep, it can also lead to some potentially dangerous future scenarios, writes Daniel Warner in an op-ed, from increased terrorism to robbing Joe Biden of a second term, with grave geopolitical consequences.

We also have an interview with Riccardo Bocco, Professor Emeritus at the Graduate Institute. In a tone that mirrors the despair heard across town, he talks to the G|O about the despair of the humanitarians and the future of the Palestinian question. He also tells us that he is still hard at work imagining a post-war order for the region that doesn’t include a two-state solution: “It’s too late for that,” he says.


“I am almost 82 years old, and I have rarely seen a situation as serious as this one,” Celso Amorim—one of the world’s most seasoned diplomats and today Lula’s special adviser on international affairs—told The G|O’s Jamil Chade as Brazil ceded the UN Security Council presidency to China on Wednesday, November 1. “Even in the famous Cuban missile crisis, there wasn't the spread of hatred and polarization of minds that exists today. There was rationality in the irrationality, in the way the crisis was handled,” he told Chade. “Brazil’s attempt [last month] to pass a resolution calling for a cease-fire was not just to save civilian lives in Gaza or in Israel, it was also to defend the UN.” 

The UN Security Council's descent into cacophonic impotency and its inability to adopt a binding resolution calling for a cease-fire is, in turn, putting an impossible burden on Geneva’s humanitarian and human rights community, rendered unable to fulfill its mission and obligations: neither rescuing hostages nor delivering aid can take place under shelling.

The sense of frustration is thus particularly acute here. As the depository of the Geneva Conventions and their 1949 Additional Protocols, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has a unique role in defending human rights and international humanitarian law. The Protocols define what is legal and what is not during conflicts—the “wars must have rules” notion. But in the absence of a political decision, humanitarian Geneva is powerless.  In recent memory, there has never been a conflict that has imposed so much anguish, frustration, and sorrow on humanitarian Geneva as the Israel-Hamas war.

-PHM


UN Paralysed in Gaza as War Crimes Mount and Children Go Hungry

By Stephanie Nebehay

The United Nations, paralyzed in the face of a “calamity” in the Middle East—where, according to experts, brutal war crimes have been committed by both Hamas and Israel in an escalating crisis—must return to its core mandate of maintaining peace and security, a former UN human rights chief told a Geneva audience this week.

Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein’s keynote address opening the 10th annual ‘Geneva Peace Week’ on Monday came as UN aid agencies fight to regain access to Gaza, where the World Health Organization (WHO) has decried “a disaster on top of a disaster” after nearly a month of Israeli air strikes and the near-total sealing of its borders.

Geneva Peace Week 2023
Geneva Peace Week is a leading annual forum in the international peacebuilding calendar in which organizations in Geneva and their international partners come together to share knowledge and practice on a diverse range of topics relating to the promotion of peace across contexts and disciplines.

The United Nations has been largely blocked from delivering life-saving food, water and medical supplies to Gaza’s 2.3 million trapped citizens, where the Hamas-run health ministry says that nearly 9,000 civilians have been killed in retaliatory Israeli air strikes since Palestinian militants carried out a raid in Israel on October 7, slaughtering 1,400 people and taking some 230 hostages.

Zeid, now president of the New York-based International Peace Institute, condemned “the shockingly brutal nature” of the Hamas attack as well as Israel’s military assault during his somber remarks, which were made at the start of a week-long event billed as ‘Building Trust, Building Peace, an Agenda for the Future.’

International Peace Institute
Promoting the prevention and settlement of conflicts

“The scale of the killing and the destruction of civilian infrastructure is stunning and nothing short of callous. Yes, Netanyahu will destroy Hamas, but the price will be also be footed by much of the innocent civilian population of Gaza,” he said, adding, “And this on top of 16 years of a near total blockade and military occupation of Palestine.” 

The “Awkward Inconsistency” of the US

Zeid, remembered for “naming and shaming” major powers during his single term (2014–2018) as the top UN human rights official, denounced “the modesty of our collective efforts at prevention and peacemaking” in the Middle East over the past decade.

He took aim at the United States, saying that its consistent defense of Israel at the UN Security Council during its ally’s latest mass bombing of civilian infrastructure in Gaza, while “rightly” condemning Russia’s bombing campaign in Ukraine, was an “awkward inconsistency.”

The Security Council failed again this week at its fifth attempt to reach consensus on a binding resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. The Biden administration has dismissed previous draft resolutions as “grossly one-sided” and denounced China and Russia for rejecting its own “strong and balanced” resolution a week before. 

Despite the deadlock, Zeid, who served as President of the Security Council during his time as Jordan’s ambassador, held out hope that the body could “apply some brakes” to the crisis and prevent it from engulfing the region. His hopes have so far been in vain.

“Those responsible for violating international humanitarian law and international criminal law on both sides—on both sides—should be made to face justice, but justice through law only,” he said.

UN Shaken to the Core

A broader concern, according to Zeid, is the total lack of criminal accountability for any atrocities perpetrated over the years in the conflict and the failure to resume serious peace talks involving the Palestinians since 2014. Vetoes by the permanent members of the Security Council in crises from Syria to Ukraine and Gaza have been “deeply corrosive” to the forum’s authority and ability to act.

“We cannot allow it to happen again, ultimately the UN cannot continue to be an organization unconnected to its Charter,” he said, concluding with an appeal: “Peacekeeping must become a core part of what a new UN would look like. [...] It has been lost or left out, and must now be recovered. There is much for us to do. The world is now becoming an open wound, let us all apply ourselves to close it together.”

The world body, whose Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has pleaded repeatedly for an immediate ceasefire, is shaken to the core. 

Speaking after Zeid on a panel at Geneva’s Graduate Institute, Elizabeth Spehar, UN Assistant Secretary-General for peacebuilding support, put a brave face on the dire global situation, while admitting “there’s a lot of despair out there.” “We still have glimmers of a multilateral system that is working,” she said, pointing to agreement around the Sustainable Development Goals and a policy brief called “A New Agenda for Peace” issued by Guterres in July.

But some in the audience voiced deep frustration, with the first questioner urging the panel to speak out strongly: “If not us here in this room, then who [will] make bold decisions and call a spade a spade? […] And if not now, then when?”

War Crime of Starvation

With the Security Council paralyzed, the UN General Assembly last week held an emergency session under its Uniting for Peace mechanism. It adopted a resolution endorsed by more than 120 states calling for an “immediate, durable, sustainable humanitarian truce leading to a cessation of hostilities”—thereby marking the first formal response by the UN. 

While non-binding, the General Assembly’s resolution was “symbolically important,” Andrew Clapham, Professor of International Public Law at the Graduate Institute and an authority on the laws of war, said in a separate lecture on Monday. The text calls on all parties to comply with international humanitarian law and international human rights law and to enable humanitarian access.

By demanding that civilians are not deprived of goods necessary for survival, the General Assembly resolution tacitly reflects the definition of the war crime of starvation of a civilian population, he said. 

Karim Khan, prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) who has an ongoing mandate to investigate crimes in Palestine, specifically alluded to the war crime of starvation of civilians during his video message delivered at the Rafah crossing from Egypt, where aid trucks have been stalled awaiting entry to Gaza, Clapham noted.

“Killing, attacking, taking of hostages and other crimes by armed groups in Israel—Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group—are going to amount to individual war crimes,” Clapham said. 

However, assessing whether Israeli strikes amount to indiscriminate bombing, which is illegal under international law, would have to be done on an “attack by attack” basis to determine any excess of civilian damage proportionate to military objectives, which is “notoriously difficult to prove,” he said.

“All Israeli nationals involved in war crimes committed in Gaza are (liable) because Palestine is a state party,” Clapham said, adding that the ICC could be expected to look at command or superior responsibility. “Bombing a hospital is totally unacceptable, it is a war crime.”

“Civilians remain civilians, it is always illegal to attack them,” he said, noting that they cannot lose such immunity if they fail to abide by Israeli demands to move to southern Gaza.

The ICC is not the only venue for prosecuting alleged atrocities, as war crimes can be prosecuted in every jurisdiction in the world, according to Clapham, whose 2021 book “War” examines the concept of war and laws governing its conduct. “The specificity of a war crime is there is no statute of limitations. They stick to you forever, wherever you go,” he said. 

“Graveyard for Children”

Children are bearing the brunt of the conflict in Gaza, where they account for some 40 percent of casualties, UNICEF said, describing the tiny densely-populated enclave as “a graveyard for children.” 

Philippe Lazzarini, a veteran Swiss aid worker who heads the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), said on Wednesday, after being allowed to make his first visit to Gaza in four weeks, that it was “one of the saddest days in my humanitarian work. […] Everyone was just asking for water and food. Instead of being at school, learning, children were asking for a sip of water and a piece of bread. It was heart-wrenching. Above all, people were asking for a ceasefire. They want this tragedy to end.”

-SN


Related content:

Unpacking Key Assumptions Underlying Legal Analyses of the 2023 Hamas-Israel War
Mapping some of the key assumptions of the 2023 Hamas-Israel War, and how they affect ongoing legal debates and deliberations.

War
This book provides an accessible and engaging account of the contemporary laws of war. It highlights how, even though war has been outlawed and should be finish

Time Bombs in Gaza and Beyond

By Daniel Warner

The ‘Hostages and Missing Families Forum’ maintains a ticking clock on its website, counting the days, hours, and seconds since the hostages were taken by Hamas. But as the Israel Defense Forces continue to bomb and invade Gaza, there are several other time bombs ticking away.

Israel’s disproportionate reaction to Hamas’ terrorist attack is starting to sow the seeds of three future scenarios: First, the indiscriminate bombing of civilians, the denying of their basic needs, and forced displacement in Gaza will encourage future acts of terrorism. Over nine thousand killed, many young children, will not be forgotten or forgiven. Second, the Global South has started to react, and not just in the streets. The West’s unconditional support of Israel is being viewed as a remnant of colonization. Finally, young and progressive voters in the United States will disavow President Biden’s embrace of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, further strengthening the chances of a third-party candidate like Cornel West—and, inadvertently, Republicans—in the 2024 elections.

‘What goes around comes around’ is more than an empty platitude. If Israel truly believes it can eliminate Hamas, it should also consider that Palestinians who may not previously have been Hamas supporters are now more likely to turn to violent actions against them. The bombings and lack of humanitarian aid will have repercussions. Terrorist acts may not happen tomorrow, but keeping people in an outdoor prison for decades and then further dehumanizing their situation with violent attacks will not go unpunished. So whatever advantages Israel sees in bombing and/or invading Gaza as retribution for the events of October 7 should be weighed against the enmity growing in the Palestinian and Arab worlds. Israel’s overreaction will have consequences—similar to the negative consequences after the United States’ overreaction to September 11.

Those repercussions may reach beyond the Middle East—acts of terrorism will undoubtedly occur in the West. Israel may believe it is responding only to Hamas and its October 7 attack, but those sympathetic to the Palestinian cause will seek their own form of vengeance for the indiscriminate reaction. Clashes have already broken out in major European cities such as London, Berlin, and Paris; museums like the Louvre and the Palace of Versailles have been evacuated due to bomb threats; security threats have also affected many European airports. As for terrorist threats in the United States, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned a Senate Committee: “The reality is that the terrorism threat has been elevated throughout 2023, but the ongoing war in the Middle East has raised the threat of an attack against Americans in the United States to a whole other level.”

The upcoming Paris Olympics will be on maximum security alert to avoid a repeat of the Palestinian extremists’ attack on Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Summer Olympics, during which eleven Israelis were killed—nine of them after having been taken hostage. If, as has been reported, the October 7 attack took two years to prepare, there is still plenty of time for militants to prepare for an attack during the Olympic Games of summer 2024 in France.

On a more international, geopolitical level, whatever coalition Biden was able to muster against the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be further limited by his administration’s support of Israel. The 35 countries that abstained from condemning Russia in an early UN General Assembly vote feel even more inclined to rally around a Global South coalition supporting Palestinians. Support for Ukraine will splinter due to perceived cultural affinities between Israel and the West.

It is in this sense that Amr Moussa summarized an international conference held in Cairo October 21: “It clarified or confirmed the political and cultural fault lines of what looks like a clash between two blocs with conflicting interests, or rather irreconcilable moral assumptions […] If the West does not change its approach, I believe that the ‘Global South,’ as they call it, will take this into account in formulating its position on this issue [Gaza],” the former Arab League Secretary-General and former Foreign Minister of Egypt wrote in Arabic international newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.

Finally, many in the United States will reject Biden’s enthusiastic support of Israel. The vocabulary of good guys versus bad guys or democracies vs autocracies doesn’t play in the current Middle East crisis. Presenting Netanyahu and Israel as the good guys won’t fly after repeated bombing of civilian targets and the catastrophic humanitarian blockade. Biden’s embrace of Bibi was an enormous generational and political blunder, and nothing that he or Secretary of State Antony Blinken might have said to the Israelis in private will overshadow that airport bro-hug, captured by the world’s press. If inclusion and decolonization are ‘in’ on campuses, the knee-jerk Zionist support narrative is very much outdated. Black Lives Matter could be replaced by Palestinian Lives Matter as a social justice issue for Palestinians and progressives alike.

The Democratic Party itself will see the most progressive factions fleeing its mythical big tent. “While moderate Democrats and critics on the right have applauded Mr. Biden’s backing of Israel, he faces new resistance from an energized faction of his party that views the Palestinian cause as an extension of the racial and social justice movements that dominated American politics in the summer of 2020,” noted Reid J. Epstein and Anjali Huynh in the New York Times.

The recent protest at Grand Central Station in New York is a prelude to more political action from the left. Organized by Jewish Voice for Peace, the protestors—many descendants of Holocaust survivors—denounced the Israeli attack on innocent civilians, with chants of “Let Gaza live,” and “Cease-fire now” filling the busy railroad station. The estimated one thousand protestors also placed banners declaring “Palestinians should be free” and “Israelis demand cease-fire now” on stairwells.

Progressives who usually vote Democrat will now have problems backing Biden and Co., and an inevitable backlash against those criticizing the President will endanger several progressives in office. The thirteen House Democrats who introduced a resolution requesting the Biden administration call for an “immediate de-escalation and cease-fire in Israel and occupied Palestine” and to send aid to Gaza will have trouble getting re-elected and in primaries.

Don’t remind progressives about Ralph Nader costing Al Gore the 2000 presidential election—they know, they know, they know. But voting for Biden will be seen as an approval of Israeli apartheid. Progressives may either vote for the independent candidate and former Harvard Professor Cornel West, or sit out 2024.

In an interview with Politico, West said that “Israel and [the] United States are primarily responsible” for the violence, but added that “Hamas must take responsibility for killing innocent folk.” West’s charismatic style and nuanced positions will attract those tired of the failed Democratic Party policies.

While the Biden administration may spend its immediate attention on keeping Israel from destroying Gaza and killing thousands of civilians, it should also consider future scenarios: There are several time bombs ticking away.

-DW

(This is a slightly edited version of a piece first published in CounterPunch.)


Interview: Riccardo Bocco

Jamil Chade: Why Is Israel Blocking Humanitarian Aid in Gaza?

Riccardo Bocco: Following the attack of October 7, Israel said that their goal was to eliminate Hamas. For three weeks, they did not move in—although they have begun entering Gaza in a limited way, in a more incisive way, over the past four days. […] What we know is that the bombarding of Gaza has been very heavy, meaning that they are trying to erase the civil infrastructure. Of course, they have said that they have killed terrorists and Hamas officers. But their strategy, in the first instance, is to bring chaos by terrorizing the Palestinian civilian population. They are coupling this strategy with the decision not to allow humanitarian aid to be brought in.

Why? 

A number of Israeli think tanks have been forecasting the possibility of an ethnic cleansing of Gaza and mass forced displacement towards Egypt. This is what is taking place under our eyes. Last weekend, in four different places where UNRWA is providing humanitarian aid, the population got there, entered the deposits and took all they could, from flour to water. The Palestinian population is desperate. We are reaching a stage where, at some point, I would not be surprised if they broke the fences around Rafah and tried to enter Egypt. It is a matter of life and death. Should Israel kill them, this would not only be a war crime but a crime against humanity as well.

So, what should the humanitarian actors do?

The only thing to do is to stand up. This is the only chance they have. That is their duty as humanitarian organizations; their duty under international humanitarian law is to serve people in dire situations. If Israel does not allow humanitarian aid to reach the suffering population, this is already in itself a grave breach of international law, and a war crime. But they have to speak out; they have to stand up.

On Gaza, the U.N. Struggles for Relevance
As on Ukraine and other critical issues, the multilateral body is trapped in political theater.

What about the responsibilities of other Members States at the Security Council? 

They are complicit in the crimes of war, definitely. The US is turning a blind eye to what is going on. They have been opposing a truce; they only speak about a humanitarian pause and a corridor. What the US is saying, indirectly, is: “Feed them and kill them.” And France and the UK seem incapable of speaking about that. 

The Security Council is also responsible for this. When you look at the results of the voting last week, it was appalling. [12 out of 15 Members voted in favour of the Brazilian-led text, while the United States voted against, and Russia and the United Kingdom abstained.]

Today, Israel is accusing WHO and UNICEF of supporting the terrorists, because they spoke out against Israeli policies on terror—and nobody dares criticize Israel.

How do you see the post-war situation? What about the two-state solution, which some are now advocating for once again? 

The two-state solution is no longer possible. If you look at the map, where is the Palestinian state? There is no Palestinian state. I am working in collaboration with Israeli and Palestinian civil society representatives on three scenarios. One of those scenarios is the confederation—we have set up a working group and will be have a meeting in Geneva next year on that. But this is the only realistic possibility, and it’s been brought by civil society organizations.

Why do you say the two-state solution is no longer possible?

How could Israel dislodge 700 thousand settlers in the West Bank? That’s a dream. We all remember what happened when they tried to do that with 9 thousand settlers in Gaza, in 2005.

Should the responsibility to protect the Palestinians be the UN’s? 

The UN is not an independent organization. It is funded by the Member States, and there is a Security Council that decides what can be done and what cannot be done. Therefore, the only thing the UN can do is to remind the Security Council of what they have signed up to: international humanitarian law and the four Geneva Conventions. This is the only point they can use as leverage to oppose what is going on. They don’t have an army. They have a moral role. The responsibility for what is happening lies with the UN Member States and the members of the Security Council.

How dangerous is this situation to the region?

The temperature in the region is at boiling point, because of the civilian population’s protests in the streets, and the autocratic governments of the Arab regimes will have to deal with that. Nobody wants to go to war against Israel, they don’t have the means. Who could attack Israel? Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq? Nobody can take military action against Israel today, and also because it has the support of the US.

But once the military operation in Gaza is over, there is a big risk of implosion in Israeli society. Palestinian society and government have already imploded. Now, the issue is what is going to happen in Israel.

Riccardo Bocco is Emeritus Professor of Political Sociology at the Department of Anthropology and Sociology at the IHEID in Geneva. He was speaking to Jamil Chade.


That's all for this week. Thank you for reading us.


Today's Briefing: Stephanie Nebehay - Daniel Warner - Jamil Chade - Philippe Mottaz

Editorial assistance: David Jenny

Edited by: Dan Wheeler